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 First Round Wide Receiver Stat

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Jonathan Hutton



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PostSubject: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Mon Apr 28, 2008 4:17 pm

After research...thinking about comments around my office this morning...

Taking into consideration it is too to judge last year's crop of receivers drafted in the first round, a total of 41 receivers were drafted in the first round from 1997-2006.

Only 20 of the 41 wideouts drafted have become regular starters for their teams.

Only 8 of those 20 regular starters became what most would consider NFL stars.

The list of 8 includes: Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Plaxico Burress, Reggie Wayne, Javon Walker, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Braylon Edwards.

Five of those eight receivers were selected within the Top 8 picks in their respective drafts.

Only Reggie Wayne was available after pick #21, as he went 30th overall in 2001.

The Titans obviously drafted #24 overall on Saturday.

The odds of finding a starting wide out at #24 are less than 50%; the odds of finding a star wide receiver at #24? Much less.
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Titanpride



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:04 pm

I'm a firm believer that you should never draft a wide-receiver in the first round... the bust percentage is to high at that position. Draft them in the mid-to-late rounds and let your position coach develope them into solid staters, so I like the Hawkins pick. That being said... I also believe if you're going to draft a running back in the first round, it has to be a everydown back not a 3rd down back or a situational back. I'm not going to give this draft a grade because it holds no merit to grade a draft class before they take the field at the NFL level, but there were a lot of reaches this year by the Titans'.


Last edited by Titanpride on Tue Apr 29, 2008 7:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
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brianmaxwell



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:26 pm

I totally agree with not taking a receiver in the first round. Jonathan Hutton's stats do not lie.
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Majndat



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Tue Apr 29, 2008 2:04 pm

That's just stupid! What ignorant comments....NEVER TAKE A RECEIVER IN THE FIRST ROUND? Oh, really, Einstein? How well has that worked for us?!!!!
Keving Dyson, whom we took in the1st, was the only receiver we have had in a decade that remotely resembled a true No.1 WR. And no, Derrick Mason was not a No.1 type WR by any stretch of the imagination.
You are forgetting Gonzalez, who the Colts selected in the first round last year...major contributor. Also Dewayne Bowe and Steve Smith...all 1st day guys that we passed on!!! Calvin Johnson got alot of playing time last year with the Lions as well.
Conversely, having a desperate need for a playmaking WR that gives Vince something to work with...we sat on our hands and waited to take another project in the 3rd (Paul Williams). Again...braniacs, how has that worked for us?!!!
It's far risker TO NOT EVEN TRY to get the best available wideouts early, WR's that have proven themselves at the college level. Go back to your statistics, genius, and look at the top 10 WR's in the NFL this past year and tell me what THE PERCENTAGES (since you like them so much) are of WR's taken in the 3rd-7thRds.
Stick that in your pipe and smoke it wise guys!!!
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Titanpride



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Tue Apr 29, 2008 4:50 pm

Majndat wrote:
That's just stupid! What ignorant comments....NEVER TAKE A RECEIVER IN THE FIRST ROUND? Oh, really, Einstein? How well has that worked for us?!!!!
Ok Goofy ! you apparently haven't been a Titans' fan for long, and don't know the logistics of the draft... the fact that you said Kevin Dyson was a legit number 1 proves it... your a funny little kid, now get off your dads computer and let the grown-up's talk !
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jgozzard80



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PostSubject: wr   Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:32 pm

The bottom line is that 50% is a pretty good chance if you look at all the players selected by a team in a draft compared to which ones actually pan out. When you have been in search for a #1 guy for years, and you wait to draft a WR in the 4th round (and just 1 at that), your not putting in a lot of effort. There have been several free agent WRs that we should have aggressively gone after over the last couple years and we have failed to upgrade.

Even though I think we need a #1, look back at when Volek started for us. He wasn't great, but he would throw for 300 yards and 3 tds frequently. He had 10 td passes to Bennett alone. And Bennett dropped balls. Where were our receiver woes then? McNair did the same thing. I think the #1 reason for our lack of offensive production comes from our bottom of the NFL QB--which he is at least for now. The 25 yard run looks flashy but doesn't do much for the team when that is all you can do.
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Titanpride



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:58 pm

We've gone after our fair share of FA receivers.. Slaughter, Davis, Pickens, Thigpen, Givens to name a few and they haven't worked out. We've also addressed the receiver position in the off-season... re-signing Gage to a long term deal, picking up McCareins ( who was very productive for us when we drafted him in the later rounds ), we acquired M. Williams ( former number 1 pick ), followed up by drafting Hawkins... who had a great senior bowl and created value in the slot we drafted him in. Add in the fact we're getting back B.Jones this year from injury and R. Williams was very productive. We run a two tight-end set offense with a run-to-pass ratio of approximately 3 to 1... and lets face it, we shouldn't have to draft receivers to make Young look like a prow-bowl quaterback... we should have Young make our receivers look like pro-bowl receivers, thats whats expected when you draft a QB with the third over all pick in the first round who is in his third year. What will drafting Johnson in the first round over a receiver do for Young ?... open up the secondary.
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brianmaxwell



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:36 pm

We will run the ball 60% of the time and the combo of Crumpler and Scaife will be our leading receivers. Chris Johnson may catch a few balls out of the backfield and surprise us all too. Noone will really know if these guys can play for a few years and not many rookies make an instant impact on their team. For every great pick there is a bust. The only thing you can really look at is the numbers and once again I will say that Jonathan Hutton's numbers don't lie.

Ask Steve Smith and David Tyree if you can can get a decent receiver in the later rounds.
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Titanpride



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Thu May 01, 2008 2:18 am

The more I study, evaluate and review this draft... the more I like it. I still think the Johnson pick was a bit of a reach, but I like the player we're getting. Johnson is going to be more beneficial for Young than a first round receiver would have been. Another player I can see helping in the passing game, and understand why they went after him was Craig Stevens. Stevens will bring a dominate blocking TE for both the running and pass game.
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Majndat



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Thu May 01, 2008 4:15 am

Titanpride wrote:
Majndat wrote:
That's just stupid! What ignorant comments....NEVER TAKE A RECEIVER IN THE FIRST ROUND? Oh, really, Einstein? How well has that worked for us?!!!!
Ok Goofy ! you apparently haven't been a Titans' fan for long, and don't know the logistics of the draft... the fact that you said Kevin Dyson was a legit number 1 proves it... your a funny little kid, now get off your dads computer and let the grown-up's talk !
Sure thing Numbnuts...at 39yrs of age, 6'2" 260lbs, I doubt you would tell me that in person.
Go back and read what I said...Kevin Dyson was the CLOSEST thing to a No.1 WR...catch that...like the rest of the Titans receivers...guess not.
You dodged the question about the top 10 WR's in the league like a real pro. Since you can't or won't answer that, get somewhere and let the real adults talk.
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brianmaxwell



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Thu May 01, 2008 11:54 am

I don't see how Mason was not a #1 receiver.
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Titanpride



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Thu May 01, 2008 12:42 pm

39 years old and you're coming on here acting like a idiot... classic ! and no, Dyson wasn't the closest thing to a number one, Mason was... know your roll Goofy, 6'2 260 doesn't impress me. You keep saying " look at the top 10 WR's in the NFL this past year "... your not understanding the concept of this thread or comprehending the logistics of the draft... quit while your ahead, your embarrassing yourself.
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brianmaxwell



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Thu May 01, 2008 3:14 pm

First Round Selections from 1995 to 2005 (Can't really rate a player taken in 2006, 2007 or 2008 so I won't)

Solid #1 Receivers - Larry Fitzgerald(#3), Andre Johnson(#3), Reggie Wayne(#30), Plaxico Burress(#8), Torry Holt(#6),
Marvin Harrison(#19),
Randy Moss(#21) *really should be on the bust list because of his attitude but I'll put him here*

#2 or #3 Receivers - Roy Williams(#7), Reggie Williams(#9), Lee Evans(#13), Dante Stallworth(#13), Ashley Lelie(#19),
Rod Gardner(#15), Santana Moss(#16), Kevin Dyson(#16), Ike Hilliard(#7), Keyshawn Johnson(#1),
Terry Glenn(#7), Eric Moulds(#24), Michael Westbrook(#4), Joey Galloway(#8),

TOTAL BUSTS!!!!!! - Troy Williamson(#7), Mike Williams(#10), Matt Jones(#21), Marc Clayton(#22), Roddy White(#27),
Michael Clayton(#15), Michael Jenkins(#29), Rashaun Woods(#31), Charles Rogers(#2), Bryant Johnson(#17),
David Terell(#8), Koren Robinson(#9), Freddie Mitchell(#25), Peter Warrick(#4), Travis Taylor(#10),
Sylvester Morris(#21), R. Jay Soward(#29), David Boston(#8), Troy Edwards(#13), Marcus Nash(#30),
Yatil Green(#15), Reidel Anthony(#16), Rae Carruth(#27), Eddie Kennison(

These are all my opinion of course but you can't even consider another guy to put as a #1. So that is 7 for #1 receivers, 14 for #2 or #3 receivers and 24 complete busts. One could also consider the 14 #2 or #3 as busts because they were first round selections.
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Titanpride



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Thu May 01, 2008 3:38 pm

I would consider Dyson a bust.
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brianmaxwell



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Thu May 01, 2008 5:33 pm

I am sort of a homer when you talk Kevin Dyson but it is true that many on the #2 or #3 list could be considered busts because of their first round status.
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jgozzard80



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PostSubject: WR stats   Thu May 01, 2008 5:34 pm

I think everybody has made some good points, except for Majndat. Brian; If you look at some of the guys you have at "total bust", some of them have had seasons way more productive than any of our recievers. That is what gets me.....My reason for pointing it out is-why not take the risk of drafting a WR 1st or 2nd round when other teams so called "busts" are more productive than our #1 or #2 guys.

Then there is the obvious answer--Young is the problem not the WRs. Which is fine but the Titans should acknowledge that without making a negative knock on Young's confidence. It was good to hear Dinger call his footwork "poor" the other day. It gives me hope that Dinger will hold him accountable, and that there is room
for improvement.

And yes, Mason is light years better than Dyson-no question.
Mason has averaged 83 rec. 1052 yds 5.5 tds over the last 8 years. What's wrong with that.
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jgozzard80



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PostSubject: 1st round selections   Thu May 01, 2008 5:39 pm

Just because a guy is drafted in the first round doesn't mean he has to be a superstar hall of fame WR. They make huge contributions to their team (most of them). Take all those guys and put them on one team and tell me what happens. Calling those guys on your list "bust" (the 2nd group) would be crazy talk!
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brianmaxwell



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Thu May 01, 2008 6:25 pm

the real point was to show that the first round of the draft is a crap shoot. Your odds are just better at other positions as opposed to a wide out. I would personally try to bring in a free agent wide receiver but one knee injury turns a proven star into a nobody over night. David Givens ring a bell.

Vince Young still has some learning to do and the running game will do more for him than anything else. I have said before that this year will be a telling year for our franchise QB. I think the kid can play at an elite level if he can get a little more focused and eliminate the desperation passes. Eli Manning literally turned from bust to superstar in mid-season because the light turned on in his head and he realized he didn't have to do it all himself. If he will just stop making the stupid interception and Vince will be fine.
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Titanpride



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Thu May 01, 2008 7:50 pm

brianmaxwell wrote:
I am sort of a homer when you talk Kevin Dyson but it is true that many on the #2 or #3 list could be considered busts because of their first round status.
good point... I agree.
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TitansFan



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Sat May 03, 2008 11:42 am

Majndat wrote:
That's just stupid! What ignorant comments....NEVER TAKE A RECEIVER IN THE FIRST ROUND? Oh, really, Einstein? How well has that worked for us?!!!! . . .

All the NFL GMs would disagree with you this year. None of them drafted a WR in the first round. The choice is wasted if the talent's not there, and there's no point in reaching.
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brianmaxwell



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Tue May 06, 2008 11:02 am

Does anyone else think LaVelle Hawkins has a chance to be a really good player in the league? I really like this kid to shine, just maybe not this year.
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Titanpride



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Tue May 06, 2008 3:21 pm

Absolutely... I thought he was the better of the two ( D.Jackson ) receivers at Cal. I even had the Titans' taking him in my mock draft, it was in the second, but none the less. On paper, we're fine at the receiver position. With the addition of Hawkins... I'm looking forward to see what Ealy, P.Williams and M.Williams bring to the table.

Onething I've notice over the last couple of days... three of our draft picks have been compared to players in the NFL. Hawkins is being comapred to Mason, Jones to Tuck and Johnson to Westbrook. Those are great players to be compared to, and if it turns out that way, we have to consider the Titans' 08' draft as one of the best "internally", right up there with the 74' Steelers'. What I mean when I say that is the amount of talent we're getting out of one draft... we would have to win a Superbowl in the next couple of years, and some of these guys would have to go to the HOF to make it legit, but the concept is still there. You also have to consider there were approximately 21 rounds back then, so we would be getting more talent in fewer rounds.

That being said... This kind of coverage needs to be taken with a grain of salt, and I'm just hoping the players in this years draft become solid starters and create value and depth.
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brianmaxwell



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Tue May 06, 2008 5:25 pm

I almost hated to actually grade the draft but you really have to put some kind of label on it for people to read it. I made a point to say twice that we will not know how good the players from this draft are for three years.

You have people who will say we should have taken a receiver in the first round. I am not one of those people.
I am in the other group who thinks the players we drafted will become good players but a few of them may have been a reach at the spot they were taken.

We drafted average linemen. Saying that, Jim Washburn has been getting average linemen paid like elite players by other teams for years. He trains them up like noone else can and then they jump ship. I guess since all of them seem to fail after they leave, the joke is on them.
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Titanpride



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Tue May 06, 2008 7:08 pm

brianmaxwell wrote:
You have people who will say we should have taken a receiver in the first round. I am not one of those people.
I agree... I've said before, Johnson is going to be more beneficial for Young than a first round receiver would have been.
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Jonathan Hutton



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PostSubject: Re: First Round Wide Receiver Stat   Wed May 07, 2008 12:05 am

brianmaxwell wrote:
Does anyone else think LaVelle Hawkins has a chance to be a really good player in the league? I really like this kid to shine, just maybe not this year.
Yes. He'll make the roster over a draft pick from 07.
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